How can Trump’s presidency shape global affairs, including and especially in relation to Ukraine and the Middle east?
Now that Donald Trump has defeated Kamala Harris for the presidency of the US, we have to see to what extent, if at all, he will defeat the ‘deep state’ during his presidency starting in January 2025 to be able to carry out his policies. The deep state is the network of persons in government, in the economy, in the security services and in the military who work together to run the US in their interests, irrespective of who is in the White House.
In his first presidency, Donald Trump had said that he would break with traditional Democratic and Republican policies to ‘Put America First’ and ‘Make American Great Again’.
His rhetoric was certainly different from those of his predecessors but in substance US foreign policy did not change much. This time he said he will not allow the ‘deep state’ to defeat him and adopt different policies. Will he manage?
Russia – Ukraine war
The main change is expected in the US position towards the Russia-Ukraine War. During his campaign he said he wants to improve relations with Russia and wants Russia and Ukraine to sit down together and negotiate their disputes and reach a deal. He has not explained how this can be achieved.
He has also told the European Union to spend more on its military power instead of depending on the US and NATO. He also spoke against sending more money and weapons to Ukraine.
The war on Gaza
It will be interesting to see how he will walk the Middle East tightrope. He is very pro-Israel but during the campaign he spoke in a way to attract the votes of the American Arabs as they were disgusted with the total support given by the Biden administration to Israel’s terrible war on Gaza where thousands have been killed and most of Gaze razed to the ground. During the campaign he told Netanyahu to stop the war on Gaza. How will he proceed now not to alienate those who voted for him because of Gaza?
Iran
What will he do about the clash between Iran and Israel? In his first presidency he destroyed the agreement reached with Iran not to develop nuclear weapons. The Biden administration managed to restrain Netanyahu not to escalate further with Iran.
Will Trump let the US be entangled in an Israel war with Iran? But that will create turmoil in the energy market and raise prices and he was elected primarily to address the cost of living of millions of Americans who have voted for him believing that his protectionist trade poicies will protect their job and improve their standards of living.
A war with Iran will be very dangerous not just for the region but for the whole world as it can escalate globally and draw in also Russia and China.
Content House 6 November 2024
